New consequences of the Glenn disaster: What awaits the space industry next? | Ars Live
This week Ars hosted a live discussion on the results of two space industry experts catastrophic explosion New Glenn rocket in late May.
With Ars Technica Space editor Eric Berger; research director of the company Quilty SpaceCaleb Henry; and host The Main Engine Cut podcastAnthony Colangelo spoke on various topics. Chief among these were the consequences of this failure for NASA’s Artemis IV mission to land humans on the moon. Blue Origin and SpaceX are building both landers to support this goal and rockets to get them to the moon.
During the conversation, Berger said that the current Blue Origin “architecture” for a human mission would require four launches of a new version of the New Glenn rocket, known as a 9×4, because it has nine first-stage engines and four upper-stage engines. This is a more powerful version than the “7×2” variant that exploded over a month ago. Blue Origin has not set a target date for the debut of the 9×4 rocket, but some sources said the company is targeting late 2027 or early 2028.
How realistic is this, especially after the destruction of Launch Complex 36A? Caleb Henry said he’s not optimistic.
I’ve never seen anyone set a date for a new rocket and actually hit it. Back in the archives, when Blue Origin moved New Glenn from a three-stage vehicle to a two-stage vehicle and made several other changes in mid-2018, these were said to be necessary to speed up the launch path. They had yet to make the first flight, and they were making these architectural changes so that they could accelerate that schedule. I think the 9×4 is really about giving them the ability to do new missions. I think adding engines makes it more difficult, not less. I don’t know exactly where they would fit relative to what they put in there, but I think 1.5 is usually a good rule of thumb, so at least a year and a half.
Colangelo said he would not be surprised if development of the 9×4 variant of the New Glenn falls into the 2030s. If so, how will NASA get its astronauts to the moon this decade, if at all?
