X users on Sunday @itslirrato (bio: “chief forecaster market taster”) mentioned some Suspicious activity on Polymarket. All ten accounts, with no clear connection other than their activities, were betting on a ceasefire in Iran by the end of the month. In total, they bet $160,000, and if their prediction is correct, their winnings will be $1.04 million.
Just watched a very suspicious group of 10 Polymarket wallets
They try to stay under the radar by breaking into small positions, but I caught their example
– On March 31/April 15, everything will be YES for the US x Iran ceasefire
– $7K – $24K in positions per wallet
– 99% of positions… pic.twitter.com/yliIb4TzyF— Lirratø (@itslirrato) March 22, 2026
According to MarketWatch’s Gordon GotsegenOne of those accounts named NOTHINGEVERFRICKINGHAPPENS is the most suspicious account. The account was created in late February and started with two similar bets – one for $11,283 and the other for $7,600 – for US strikes against Iran between February 28 and March 1. The US holidays started on February 28, so both bets paid out for a total of $85,000.
Now see for yourself: NOTHING HAPPENS there are two more active bets: $16,582.45 if “A ceasefire between the United States and Iran until March 31?” makes a “yes” decision, and $24,265.52 if “A ceasefire between the United States and Iran until April 15?” decides “yes”.
By the way, there are no bets on the Iranian war in this account other than this four.
Soon after a a bipartisan pair of senatorsAdam Schiff and John Curtis introduced something called the “Prediction Markets Gambling Act” on Monday to ban sports betting on Polymarket and its rival Kalshi – both sites announced new moves to police insider trading.
According to the Associated PressPolymarket, in turn, changed its rules in such a way that users – athletes, were prohibited from trading on contracts, especially if they had the opportunity to influence the occurrence of the event or if they had confidential information about the relevant event. While most obviously aimed at professional boxers, for example, the new policy could affect government officials and private contractors with security clearances.
