According to reports, Apple executives were once expected The iPhone will be replaced Smart glasses by 2029, then with Eddy Cue updates this forecast By 2035.
However, a high-profile former ardent supporter of the idea has now completely changed his mind and now believes we’ll still be using smartphones 20 years from now…
Smart glasses that replace smartphones
Neal Stephenson used the term “metaverse” for the first time in his novel Snow accidentand later worked as chief futurist at Magic Leap. Snow accident described virtual reality goggles and essentially described the types of three-dimensional virtual worlds to be created by Meta et al.
Stephenson went on to claim that smart glasses are the future, saying it is “obvious” that they will replace smartphones within 20 years. Apple also shared this view – an internal company report Presentation in 2019 said:
In the long term, Apple believes that these types of devices will eventually replace smartphones, telling the team that this will happen “in about a decade.”
SVP Eddy Cue echoed this sentiment just last yearalthough he still thought that was ten years away.
“In 10 years, you might not need an iPhone as much as it seems crazy,” he said. “The only way to really be competitive is if your technology changes. Technology changes create these opportunities.
Notably, he used this argument in antitrust hearings to suggest that nothing could be taken for granted, including the continued success of the iPhone.
Stephenson no longer believes in that future
The writer says now he has completely changed his mind. He now says we’ll still be using smartphones in 20 years, and wearables aren’t the future he once believed.
Reader, I’ve changed my mind. Twenty years from now, everyone will still be looking at hand rectangles. Or at least if the only alternative is to wear the stuff on their faces (…)
One possible solution is to improve and miniaturize the devices to the point where they look just like glasses. However, it turns out that making these things look bad has an unexpected side effect. It happened with Google Glass, which immediately coined the term “glasshole,” and it happened again with Meta’s product, which, despite the heavy-framed glasses, looked normal.
Adoption of 9to5Mac
I’m not sure there’s a role for devices, but I agree they won’t replace smartphones.
in 2019I said that Apple Glasses will potentially replace the Apple Watch, not the iPhone. I argued that while they might make sense for those who already wear glasses, I couldn’t see the rest of us wearing them all day.
I could never see myself wearing any kind of glasses, dumb or smart. Are we really going to be in a situation where everyone who owns an iPhone now wears glasses? If we’re not going to wear them all the time, does reaching into our pocket for a pair of Apple Glasses make more sense than reaching for our phone?
I said I could see some apps for the device, but not quite as a smartphone replacement.
End ylisten In response to Cue, I noted that we still use clamshell laptops 40 years after they first appeared in 1984 – for the simple reason that the form factor works. I suggested that the same would be true for smartphones.
I suspect the smartphone is the same. Sure, it’s going to hit Apple’s goal with this single slab of glass, and yes, some people will prefer folding models, but the basic idea of a flat, pocket-sized device with a touchscreen as the primary means of interaction has been around for 18 years now, and I think it’s going to be around 23 years from now. The design works.
What is your view? Please share your thoughts in the comments.
FTC: We use automatic affiliate links that generate income. More.
