The shock of the Iran war undermines Trump’s vision of US energy dominance



The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has stranded tankers from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, which supply 20 percent of global LNG. Asia has been particularly hard hit because it imports 80 to 90 percent of its supply from the Persian Gulf. Reopening the strait will not restore all of the lost supply. In mid-March, Iranian missiles knocked out 17 percent of capacity at Qatar’s Ras Laffan refinery, QatarEnergy’s CEO said. repairs can take five years.

The United States has moved aggressively to become a bigger part of the global LNG market, with Trump trying to secure major purchase deals from trading partners such as Japan, the EU and South Korea. But the eight existing US LNG export terminals are already operating at full capacity. Although Trump has promised to bring more capacity online, complex multibillion-dollar facilities take years to build and permit.

As a result, U.S. LNG exports of about 15 billion cubic feet of gas per day are currently limited to only 11 to 13 percent of total U.S. natural gas production. The situation leaves the US with an abundance of the main fuel for electricity, even as other countries struggle to expand their supplies.

But American consumers are getting over it sharp increase in electricity prices For many reasons unrelated to war—mostly capital building by utility companies, partly to accommodate the data center explosion, but also to build resilience against wildfires, storms and other impacts of climate change, and to replace aging infrastructure.

Theirs bimonthly video seriesEnergy analysts at the Center for Strategic and International Studies thought the best example of US energy independence was almost entirely unnoticed by American consumers because of these other factors.

“So, as we look at the precipice of a global energy crisis, or if we may already be in a crisis, the United States will feel it in the oil markets, but we’re insulated from gas price shocks for now because of the nature of the gas system and the abundant supply in the United States?” asked Joseph Majkut, director of CSIS’s Energy Security and Climate Change program.



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