Haiyan Jiang, a meteorologist at Florida International University, said there is a strong possibility of a strong El Niño, which could increase water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico.
“We probably won’t have as many storms as in previous years. But some storms are lucky,” he said. “We see outliers all the time, especially during hurricanes. So I believe Floridians, we need to prepare.”
2026 Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Names
| Arthur | Hanna | Omar |
| Bertha | Isaiah | Paulette |
| Cristobal | Josephine | Rene |
| Dolly | Kyle | Sally |
| Eduard | Leah | Teddy |
| Fay | Marco | Wiki |
| Gonzalo | Nana | Wilfred |
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which oversees the National Weather Service, said the NWS forecast was for general seasonal activity and did not include predictions of when or where hurricanes might make landfall. NOAA said there is a 55 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 35 percent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 percent chance of an above-normal season.
Forecasters at Colorado State University similarly predicted a below-average season with 13 named storms, including six hurricanes and two major hurricanes. Forecasters said waters were warmer than normal in the western tropical Atlantic, but slightly cooler than normal in the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic. A warming Atlantic Ocean also leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere, which could increase hurricane activity, they said.
Forecasters in Colorado said the hurricane has a 32 percent chance for the entire U.S. coast, a 15 percent chance for the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, and a 20 percent chance for the Gulf Coast from Florida to Brownsville, Texas.
Alessi pointed out that Hurricane Melissa devastated Jamaica as a Category 5 storm last year, even though no hurricanes made landfall in the United States. Melissa caused an estimated $9 billion in damage and 95 deaths across the Caribbean.
“Just because the season is below average does not mean that a very strong hurricane will not reach the United States.”
This article originally appeared there Domestic Climate Newsis a nonprofit, nonpartisan news organization covering climate, energy, and the environment. Sign up for their newsletter here.
