NASA has estimated the odds of crew loss on the first astronaut flight aboard SpaceX’s Crew Dragon in 2020 at 1 in 276. Boeing’s Starliner In 2024, the odds were 1 in 295. You wouldn’t be wrong to question these numbers. given the proven performance Dragon and Starliner.
This chart from NASA’s Safety and Mission Assurance Office describes the agency’s process for conducting probabilistic risk assessments.
Credit: NASA
This chart from NASA’s Safety and Mission Assurance Office describes the agency’s process for conducting probabilistic risk assessments.
Credit: NASA
So what do the Artemis II astronauts make of all this?
Mission Commander Reid Wiseman said the crew tried to “honestly and openly” prepare their families for the dangers of a circumnavigation.
“I went for a walk with my kids and I told them, ‘Here’s the will, here’s the trust papers, and if anything happens to me, what’s going to happen to you,'” Wiseman said. “It’s just part of life. I wish more people talked to their families that way in everyday life, because you never know what the next day will bring.”
Any sailor knows you can’t stay in port forever. Test pilots and astronauts take calculated risks to survive.
“When you see numbers like Mach 39 at the inlet, when you see numbers like 38,000 miles, 250,000 miles and 5 or 6 million pounds on the pad, those are just crazy numbers,” Wiseman said. “You don’t understand these numbers at all. There’s a risk involved. We don’t know what we don’t know right now, so we’ll learn all that (on the mission).
Despite the unknowns, Wiseman is ready: “For me, I actually feel 100 percent bought in. When I get into Orion, it’s like climbing into my bed and I’m going to feel warm and snuggled.”
The formal risk matrix for Artemis II is similar to Artemis I, with MMOD again at the top of the list. Matt Ramsey, NASA’s Artemis II mission manager, told Ars in January that the Orion spacecraft’s environmental control and life support system not flying at full capacity on Artemis I is the second-highest risk to Artemis II. “Those two are my biggest concerns,” said Ramsey, who has been with NASA since 2002.
